QBs in the NFL Draft and Should Your Team Draft Them (Updated 2026)
Which QBs should teams take in this year’s NFL Draft? The experts will tell you who is good and not, but they’re kind of bad at it. Same with NFL GMs. Heck, even Tom Brady was a late-round pick, meaning not even the Patriots knew he’d be good.
So, am I better at predicting the success of NFL QBs?
All I know is I wanted Josh Allen (good call) and Baker Mayfield (OK call, I guess), and wanted nothing to do with Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold. I would’ve taken Jayden Daniels over Caleb Williams, and I would have drafted Jaxson Dart over Cam Ward. I also would’ve drafted Richardson (though not #1 overall) if I needed a QB, and completely passed on Bryce Young and CJ Stroud.
So, maybe I am. Then again, maybe I’m not. Either way, here’s what I think of the QBs in this year’s NFL Draft, along with results from previous years, as I casually posted them. No deep-dives, video breakdowns, or gobbledygook: Just a simple prediction based on how I see them play the game.
QBs in the 2026 NFL Draft: Pick or Pass?
Not a star-studded draft class, with Fernando Mendoza (#1) my only tier-1 QB. Tier-2+ (all non-starters out of the gate) includes, in order, Luke Altmyer, Ty Simpson, Cole Payton, and Joe Fagnano.
Fernando Mendoza: Good touch on the ball, and his legs are a great asset. I don’t see him throwing people open that often, which is concerning, but he puts contested balls in the right place, and he seems to understand what he wants to do with each play. He’s not a slam dunk, but if I am picking #1, I’m taking him.
Ty Simpson: Backup. Lacks the arm strength to make some NFL throws.
Garrett Nussmeier: No thanks. Low-end backup.
Carson Beck: Doesn’t throw WRs open. Makes too many throws that get picked in the NFL. Maybe an OK backup.
Drew Allar: Nope. Stares down his WRs too often. Doesn’t put contested balls in a great spot.
Cole Payton: Late-round flyer. Has legs, decent touch on the ball, and puts it in a good position. Needs to develop a quicker release to realize NFL potential.
Taylen Green: Mid- to late-round flyer. His legs are definitely an asset, and he has decent touch on the ball (not great), but he doesn’t drive the ball downfield very well. This won’t be favorable in the NFL. Likely a backup.
Luke Altmyer: If I am searching for a QB, I’m taking him (round 3+, depending on team need). He can run, has quick decision-making, can drive the ball fairly well, and has good touch.
Cade Klubnik: Backup. He can run and has decent touch on the ball, but tends to hold it a bit long. Not great at throwing into tight windows. Nothing that screams NFL QB.
Sawyer Robertson: Backup at best. Inconsistent ball placement, not great speed, and can hold the ball too long at times.
Joe Fagnano: Later-round QB with upside. Throws a decent ball, but more of a short-to-intermediate range thrower. Can move decently and sees the field relatively well. Tends to stare down his receiver at times. Likely higher-end backup with fringe, starter potential.
Diego Pavia: Sorry, but no. Decent thrower with a clean pocket, but he tends to hold the ball too long to process the field (likely a result of his height). Not scared to rip it in windows, but delays will cause too many INTs in the NFL.
QBs in the 2025 NFL Draft: Pick or Pass?
TL:DR: Jaxson Dart is my number 1. Ward and Shough are equal. I might like the risk of Shough more.
Cam Ward. Mid-to-low tier starter. Can find a guy, but tends to hold the ball long and rarely throws guys open. Has upside, worth drafting if you need a QB. Don’t see superstar status, but could be “good enough” status.
Shedeur Sanders. Nope. Total bust.
Jaxson Dart. Draft. Has legs. Puts it in tight window and drops them in. Doesn’t hold it long. Draft if you need a QB. Might struggle at first with progressions. I like him more than Cam Ward.
Jalen Milroe. Good backup. Legs will keep him in the league. Decent passer, but looks at his receivers too much.
Will Howard. This guy could be a decent QB. Reminds me of a mix of Herbert and Maye. Might be a good spot for a QB-pergatory team. Likely a low-end starter with some upside, nothing better than a mid-level starter.
Quinn Ewers. Second/third stringer.
Kyle McCord. Can make a living as a backup. As a starter, he’d be best under a west coast/timing system, like Shannahan or … hello Dolphins.
Riley Leonard. Hello UFL.
Tyler Shough. Might be a decent starter. If you need a backup to develop or to challenge a low-tier starter, he’s your man. He’s probably as good as Cam Ward with more upside.
Dillion Gabriel. Can throw and run it but I think he’s a backup.
QBs in the 2024 NFL Draft: Pick or Pass?
Jayden Daniels: Yes, he's my first overall.
Caleb Williams: Yes. He needs quicker decision-making. Otherwise, he'll take too many sacks. I think he can make that switch.
Drake Maye: Decent backup QB, maybe a bottom-tier starter.
JJ McCarthy: Hated watching him live, but looking at the tape, he makes NFL throws and turned me slightly. Stares his WRs down too much. 3rd rounder. Will be boom or bust. If I had to bet, I'd say bust.
Bo Nix: Eh. No thanks. Backup at best.
Michael Penix Jr. The MOST intriguing QB in the draft. Most accurate college QB I’ve seen, and had an incredibly awful championship game. Multiple injuries in his career. I think he's a starter in the league. Massive upside, and massive downside. I'd take him in the 2nd round if I needed a QB within two years.
Austin Reed: Draft the dude. "Short" for the typical NFL QB (6'1", same as Lamar), but this guy can make throws.
Spencer Rattler: Backup QB
Michael Pratt: Nope. Hello UFL.
Jordan Travis: No thanks. Backup at best.
QBs in the 2023 NFL Draft: Pick or Pass?
Draft: The only QB I am taking in this draft is Richardson. I like his throws, and he has some serious upside.
Notable NOs:
Levis
Hooker
Stroud
Young
QBs in the 2022 & Earlier NFL Drafts
Definitely Draft:
Mayfield
Allen
Burrow
Lawrence
Mahommes
Worth Drafting ("think" he'll be good, not great, but also not entirely confident):
Watson
Jackson (more upside than Watson)
Herbert (Chad Pennington-esque)
Notable NOs:
Rosen, Darnold, Murray, Pickett, Willis, Jones, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Tua, Love, Haskins, Love, Jones, Trubisky, Kizer, Newton.
Need someone to evaluate QBs for your team? I’m available for hire.