QBs in the NFL Draft and Should Your Team Draft Them (Updated 2026)

Which QBs should teams take in this year’s NFL Draft? The experts will tell you who is good and not, but they’re kind of bad at it. Same with NFL GMs. Heck, even Tom Brady was a late-round pick, meaning not even the Patriots knew he’d be good.

So, am I better at predicting the success of NFL QBs?

All I know is I wanted Josh Allen (good call) and Baker Mayfield (OK call, I guess), and wanted nothing to do with Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold. I would’ve taken Jayden Daniels over Caleb Williams, and I would have drafted Jaxson Dart over Cam Ward. I also would’ve drafted Richardson (though not #1 overall) if I needed a QB, and completely passed on Bryce Young and CJ Stroud.

So, maybe I am. Then again, maybe I’m not. Either way, here’s what I think of the QBs in this year’s NFL Draft, along with results from previous years, as I casually posted them. No deep-dives, video breakdowns, or gobbledygook: Just a simple prediction based on how I see them play the game.

QBs in the 2026 NFL Draft: Pick or Pass?

Not a star-studded draft class, with Fernando Mendoza (#1) my only tier-1 QB. Tier-2+ (all non-starters out of the gate) includes, in order, Luke Altmyer, Ty Simpson, Cole Payton, and Joe Fagnano.

• Fernando Mendoza: Good touch on the ball, and his legs are a great asset. I don’t see him throwing people open that often, which is concerning, but he puts contested balls in the right place, and he seems to understand what he wants to do with each play. He’s not a slam dunk, but if I am picking #1, I’m taking him.

• Ty Simpson: Backup. Lacks the arm strength to make some NFL throws.

• Garrett Nussmeier: No thanks. Low-end backup.

• Carson Beck: Doesn’t throw WRs open. Makes too many throws that get picked in the NFL. Maybe an OK backup.

• Drew Allar: Nope. Stares down his WRs too often. Doesn’t put contested balls in a great spot.

• Cole Payton: Late-round flyer. Has legs, decent touch on the ball, and puts it in a good position. Needs to develop a quicker release to realize NFL potential.

• Taylen Green: Mid- to late-round flyer. His legs are definitely an asset, and he has decent touch on the ball (not great), but he doesn’t drive the ball downfield very well. This won’t be favorable in the NFL. Likely a backup.

• Luke Altmyer: If I am searching for a QB, I’m taking him (round 3+, depending on team need). He can run, has quick decision-making, can drive the ball fairly well, and has good touch.

• Cade Klubnik: Backup. He can run and has decent touch on the ball, but tends to hold it a bit long. Not great at throwing into tight windows. Nothing that screams NFL QB.

• Sawyer Robertson: Backup at best. Inconsistent ball placement, not great speed, and can hold the ball too long at times.

• Joe Fagnano: Later-round QB with upside. Throws a decent ball, but more of a short-to-intermediate range thrower. Can move decently and sees the field relatively well. Tends to stare down his receiver at times. Likely higher-end backup with fringe, starter potential.

• Diego Pavia: Sorry, but no. Decent thrower with a clean pocket, but he tends to hold the ball too long to process the field (likely a result of his height). Not scared to rip it in windows, but delays will cause too many INTs in the NFL.

QBs in the 2025 NFL Draft: Pick or Pass?

TL:DR: Jaxson Dart is my number 1. Ward and Shough are equal. I might like the risk of Shough more.

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Cam Ward. Mid-to-low tier starter. Can find a guy, but tends to hold the ball long and rarely throws guys open. Has upside, worth drafting if you need a QB. Don’t see superstar status, but could be “good enough” status.

Shedeur Sanders. Nope. Total bust.

Jaxson Dart. Draft. Has legs. Puts it in tight window and drops them in. Doesn’t hold it long. Draft if you need a QB. Might struggle at first with progressions. I like him more than Cam Ward.

Jalen Milroe. Good backup. Legs will keep him in the league. Decent passer, but looks at his receivers too much.

Will Howard. This guy could be a decent QB. Reminds me of a mix of Herbert and Maye. Might be a good spot for a QB-pergatory team. Likely a low-end starter with some upside, nothing better than a mid-level starter.

Quinn Ewers. Second/third stringer.

Kyle McCord. Can make a living as a backup. As a starter, he’d be best under a west coast/timing system, like Shannahan or … hello Dolphins.

Riley Leonard. Hello UFL.

Tyler Shough. Might be a decent starter. If you need a backup to develop or to challenge a low-tier starter, he’s your man. He’s probably as good as Cam Ward with more upside.

Dillion Gabriel. Can throw and run it but I think he’s a backup.

QBs in the 2024 NFL Draft: Pick or Pass?

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Jayden Daniels: Yes, he's my first overall.

Caleb Williams: Yes. He needs quicker decision-making. Otherwise, he'll take too many sacks. I think he can make that switch.

Drake Maye: Decent backup QB, maybe a bottom-tier starter.

JJ McCarthy: Hated watching him live, but looking at the tape, he makes NFL throws and turned me slightly. Stares his WRs down too much. 3rd rounder. Will be boom or bust. If I had to bet, I'd say bust.

Bo Nix: Eh. No thanks. Backup at best.

Michael Penix Jr. The MOST intriguing QB in the draft. Most accurate college QB I’ve seen, and had an incredibly awful championship game. Multiple injuries in his career. I think he's a starter in the league. Massive upside, and massive downside. I'd take him in the 2nd round if I needed a QB within two years.

Austin Reed: Draft the dude. "Short" for the typical NFL QB (6'1", same as Lamar), but this guy can make throws.

Spencer Rattler: Backup QB

Michael Pratt: Nope. Hello UFL.

Jordan Travis: No thanks. Backup at best.

QBs in the 2023 NFL Draft: Pick or Pass?

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Draft: The only QB I am taking in this draft is Richardson. I like his throws, and he has some serious upside.

Notable NOs:

• Levis

• Hooker

• Stroud

• Young

QBs in the 2022 & Earlier NFL Drafts

Definitely Draft:

• Mayfield

• Allen

• Burrow

• Lawrence

• Mahommes

Worth Drafting ("think" he'll be good, not great, but also not entirely confident):

• Watson
  

• Jackson (more upside than Watson)

• Herbert (Chad Pennington-esque)

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Notable NOs:

Rosen, Darnold, Murray, Pickett, Willis, Jones, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Tua, Love, Haskins, Love, Jones, Trubisky, Kizer, Newton.

Need someone to evaluate QBs for your team? I’m available for hire.

Buffalo Bills Hire Joe Brady. Really?

Today, the Bills hired Joe Brady as their new head coach, and I can’t believe it. I really can’t.

The owner fired Sean McDermott because he felt they could not get past the “proverbial playoff wall.” I agree, and while not specifically calling for McD’s head, I am OK with the decision. However, my biggest concern was less on the head coach and more on the OC. I don’t believe Brady has what it takes to be an elite playcaller. Man, I hope I’m wrong, but I fear the Bills are going to run it back with mostly the same staff in place — and that IS the issue.

When I think about it, was this the interview process?

I wanted to turn the page from Brady before the season even started. Over the past two-plus years, I have taken issue with his play-calling from several areas. Watching it unfold made me double down. Here are my gripes.

My issues with Joe Brady’s offense

1. Bubble screens, and more specifically, throws to the line of scrimmage. The Bills have a cheat-code QB, and yet Brady decides the best way to use him is to have him throw the ball to the line of scrimmage the moment he touches it. You might as well put me back there throwing the ball!

With a chance to close out the game, he did this on 3rd down in the fourth quarter inside the red zone during the Bills-Broncos playoff game. In fact, he did it on second down as well — although he held the ball for a full 1.5 seconds while waiting for Samuel to come out of the backfield. Both plays went nowhere — much like nearly every bubble screen for the past two seasons. Oh, and let’s not forget the bubble screen on third down on the final drive in the KC playoff game the year before.

Repeatedly, he ran these bubble screens with very limited success. Unless McDermott specifically called for those plays, he was repeatedly willing to take the ball out of the best player’s hands. This is an OC issue, and a serious one.

2. Running up the middle on first and goal from outside the five. What a waste. These plays routinely go nowhere and are practically a waste of down. Heck, look at the same series of red zone plays in the Bills-Broncos game. First down, run to the outside for 1 yard (I know, not up the middle, but you got the same predictable run and result).

Add running it up the middle on second down to my list of grievances. Oh, and running it on 2&1 instead of taking a shot, and you have yourself a conservative run party. This is an OC issue. But what if you don’t make it? Well, not knowing you have two plays for a near-guaranteed Allen sneak/tush push on third and fourth down is an OC issue.

3. This part I don’t know, but what involvement did Brady have in the Bills’ deciding to build an incredibly weak WR room? We’re about to find out. I am led to believe Brady wasn’t opposed to the WRs they had. If so, I imagine, since Beane apparently trusts him so much, they would’ve made a move to improve it at the trade deadline. Instead, I have GMBB defending the assets he assembled while grasping at straws throughout the season.

4. My 13-year-old calls out the Bills plays before they happen, and he’s right most of the time — and he’s not even a Bills fan! If he and I can do it so easily, what makes me think he’s fooling a defensive coordinator?

What I need from Joe Brady as the Bills’ coach

1. Bring in an established defensive coordinator — or someone who is considered to “know their stuff.” We can’t run it back with the same crew. Getting past the proverbial playoff wall means getting better at what you do. The defense was a consistent letdown. Be better, and that starts with the top of the pyramid. If not an established playcaller, the hire needs to have some pedigree behind them, having studied under some of the brightest minds. While some is OK, I can’t have significant learning on the job. A veteran D assistant to serve as a sounding board would be helpful with a younger guy.

2. Be a serious playcaller. The same-old same-old is not going to get it done. I do not want Josh Allen to have to make up for your game plan and playcalling. I’ve watched it too often. What I want is for Josh Allen to make his great playcalling unstoppable. He shouldn’t have to be Superman to win games. He should be Superman to demoralize and bury the opponent. I want to win when he’s average.

3. Advocate for solid WRs. Make it clear that the lack of WRs was the previous regime’s decision. Your job as OC is to make your QB’s job as easy as possible. Do it.

4. Do NOT make the season come down to giving Josh Allen the ball, trailing, and a chance to win the game. This is not getting past the wall. Build a team that gets him a two-score lead and the luxury of sitting on the sideline while the defense goes to work with a scheme that doesn’t give 9-yard cushions on a third-and-seven.

Will Joe Brady succeed?

I have not seen evidence that Joe Brady can accomplish these things. In fact, I’ve seen a stubbornness to continually run plays with little to no success while simultaneously taking the ball out of the NFL’s best QBs’ hands. To me, this is not a good indication of someone able to evolve.

I hope he makes the right staffing decisions that improve this team. I hope he advocates for better players on offense. I hope he learns how to be a better placaller.

I’m not holding my breath.

Would one of the other hot-shot young OCs in the league have been a better fit? I don’t know. It would have all been a gamble. I just don’t think Joe Brady is the guy to smash through the wall, and I’ve never wanted to be so wrong in my life. Good luck Joe!