Greg Zakowicz Greg Zakowicz

The Retail (Blue)Sky is Falling — Week of May 5

Here are 5 ecommerce, retail, social media, and other industry articles that caught my attention this week.

honorable mention bluesky posts of the week

Ruh Roh Shaggy! arstechnica.com/security/202... #ecommerce #retail

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) May 7, 2025 at 4:09 PM

If you plan to spend, how much are you planning? chainstoreage.com/news-briefs/... #mothersday #ecommerce #shopping #marketing

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) May 6, 2025 at 9:32 AM

Pinterest debuts generative AI-based visual search features chainstoreage.com/pinterest-de... #socialmedia #pinterest #ecommerce

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) May 6, 2025 at 8:52 AM
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The Retail (Blue)Sky is Falling — Week of April 28

Here is a collection of ecommerce and retail industry articles I found interesting and some correlating Bluesky posts from the week.

bluesky posts of the week

Will this mean less competition from sellers? Is that a good thing, and if so, for who (sellers or buyers)? And how much could this hurt Amazon ad revenues during Prime Day? omnitalk.blog/2025/04/29/c... #ecommerce #retail #marketing #primeday #tariffs

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) May 2, 2025 at 8:40 AM

This is an area I am curious to watch play out. People are slow to change behavior. I more curious about these tools buying things that are way off the mark — and then how credit card companies deal with the aftermath. techcrunch.com/2025/04/30/v... #ecommerce #retail #AI #Marketing #agenticAI

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) May 1, 2025 at 8:53 AM

It's going to be a challenging year for ecom brands. » Inflation is up. » Discretionary spending is down. » Consumer confidence is low. That’s not a recipe for success But what does it mean for brands? martechvibe.com/article/trus... #ecommerce #retail #inflation #tariffs #economy

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) April 30, 2025 at 12:24 PM

I'm excited to join Kayle Larkin & Chase Dimond on 5/7 to talk about how to turn browsers into buyers using high-intent email & SMS flows. It's free & we'll smile, so come join us! 👉 go.getelevar.com/turn-browser... #ecommerce #retail #consumerconfidence #marketing #SMS #emailgeeks

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) April 30, 2025 at 10:07 AM

A $32 import charge on a $23 item? Will Americans curb their shopping on sites like Temu as they said they would in this report » www.omnisend.com/temu-vs-amaz... #Ecommerce #retail #tariffs

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) April 28, 2025 at 11:52 AM
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Greg Zakowicz Greg Zakowicz

Trust is Currency: Capturing Every Sale in a Downturn

Overall consumer confidence may be fading but that doesn’t mean brands can’t take steps to build value and establish trust. By staying laser-focused on the customer and delivering exceptional experiences, brands can force shoppers to think twice before purchasing from other stores. Here are three simple ways brands can protect themselves from a downturn.  

Let me say it plainly: 2025 is shaping up to be a challenging year for ecommerce brands. Inflation is up. Discretionary spending is down. Consumer confidence is low. That’s not a recipe that’s traditionally good for many businesses. But what does it really mean?

I am not an economist, nor do I play one on TV. I connect the dots and call it as I see it. When inflation was reportedly down I looked around and saw plenty of things continuing to increase. I felt little, if any, relief. I saw discretionary spending among friends, family, and vacation goers begin to slow. That micro view was telling and was slowly emerging at the macro level.  

That was all before tariffs, potential trade wars, and geopolitical instability we currently find ourselves in. So what do I see coming for ecommerce brands in 2025 and how can they adapt to grow, or worst case, stay afloat this year?

Let me explain and explore.

State of The Consumer and Spending

We feel it: consumers are on edge. Prices on everyday goods and services continue to increase, tariffs are expected to increase prices further, discretionary spending is decreasing, government layoffs are adding to unemployment numbers, and overall consumer confidence is low. February’s Consumer Confidence Report was ugly. March was even worse, showing a decrease of 7.2 points in the Consumer Confidence Index, the biggest drop since we were in the throes of the pandemic. Maybe more concerning, the Expectation Index dropped by 9.6 points, finishing at 65.2. A score under 80 typically signals a recession is on the way — something even the President couldn’t rule out.

Over the past year-plus, we’ve seen consumer shopping habits shift toward a value-first mindset with purchases, trading down, often to private labels, when value aligns. This shift to value-minded shopping has resulted in consumers spending a larger share of their wallets with stores, meaning there are fewer purchases to go around. This trend of consolidated shopping was on full display during BFCM week this past holiday shopping season, which saw overall order volumes dip while the average order value increased 55% year-over-year, increasing from $152.54 to $235.94.

These changes have benefited large, price-focused retailers like Amazon and Walmart. Walmart, in particular, has seen its share of higher-income households increase from this change, indicating that families of all incomes are feeling the squeeze. But even these brands aren’t immune. Walmart, Target, Amazon, Costco, Lowe’s, and even airlines are forecasting a further pullback on spending in 2025. 

Then there are tariffs. We don’t quite know the full impact tariffs will have on spending, but brands are expected to raise prices to maintain profits. Target has publicly said prices will increase on many products, from produce to clothing. Companies like Walmart may have enough buying power to mitigate some price increases, but they won’t be immune. Reciprocal tariffs imposed on US exports will further impact domestic prices.

Shoppers have turned to stores like Amazon, Temu, and Shein to save money, but many products sold on those platforms are made in China and, as of May 2, no longer qualify for the de minimis exemption, exposing them to price increases. In response, Temu and Shein have already announced they will raise prices as of late April. 

Though US consumers trust Temu less than Amazon, sometimes money talks — but only so much. Nearly 20% of shoppers said they’d stop purchasing products on Temu if prices went up significantly. This could quickly become a reality if there are substantial changes to de minimis exemptions, which the President has talked about. 

My view: inflation isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Groceries and insurance will continue to gouge Americans’ wallets. Unemployment will increase, and consumers will spend less.

My theme for this year is to capture every … sale … possible. 

What Can Brands Do?

Overall consumer confidence may be fading but that doesn’t mean brands can’t take steps to build value and establish trust. By staying laser-focused on the customer and delivering exceptional experiences, brands can force shoppers to think twice before purchasing from other stores. Here are three simple ways brands can protect themselves from a downturn.  

1. Utilize High-ROI and First-Party Marketing Channels

The bigger the ROI the bigger the profits. One of the consistently best ROI marketing channels is email at 68:1. Email open rates continue to increase year over year, ending 2024 at a healthy 26%. We’ve also seen click-to-conversion rates increase, indicating that when consumers find something they want to purchase, they do so. 

In addition to email, SMS is another first-party channel that consumers increasingly prefer. In 2024, Omnisend’s US customers generated $25 million in SMS-generated sales. Conversion rates for scheduled SMS campaigns finished the year better than those for email campaigns. Brands should capitalize on both channels’ effectiveness and continue growing their email and SMS lists. 

2. Rely on Automations

Email and SMS automation helps brands capture every possible sale because they are sent based on users’ actions at high-intent stages of the shopping journey, such as visiting a product page or abandoning a shopping cart. Automated emails generate 37% of all email marketing sales and only 2% of sends. 

As we navigate through 2025, a post-purchase messaging strategy will be critical for customer retention and capturing every possible sale. Brands should create a series of messages that enhance customers’ experiences, such as how-to, tips and tricks, and customer service-oriented messages. These can be the difference between a repeat sale and a lost customer.

3. Reinforce Brand Value

Shoppers are value-driven, but this can mean more than price. It can be a combination of differentiators such as product quality, customer service, and shipping and return policies. Brands should actively promote these differentiators on websites, email messages, and social media platforms. Constant reinforcement can help shoppers see the overall value, even if a brand and its products aren’t the lowest prices.

Looking ahead

In the best-case scenario, geopolitical tensions will stabilize, inflation will recede, and consumer confidence will rise. Worst case, we enter a full-blown recession causing economic ripples around the globe. In either case, ecommerce is strong and resilient. Brands making the effort now to prove their value to consumers and to create a stellar purchase experience will be the ones that grow during these challenging times. We did it before, we’ll do it again. 

»» This article originally appeared on Martechvibe

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Greg Zakowicz Greg Zakowicz

The Retail (Blue)Sky is Falling — Week of April 14

Here is a collection of ecommerce and retail industry articles I found interesting and some correlating Bluesky posts from the week.

bluesky posts of the week

No one is immune retailwire.com/us-wine-indu... #ecommerce #retail #tariffs #wine #economy

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) April 18, 2025 at 11:08 AM

De minimis is coming to an end in two short weeks. qz.com/temu-amazon-... #ecommerce #temu #deminimis #retail #tariffs

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) April 17, 2025 at 6:33 PM

Lowe's ... It's in the game! chainstoreage.com/lowes-extend... #Ecommerce #retail #culture #gaming #marketing #lowes

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) April 15, 2025 at 1:00 PM

Shoppers seeking value everywhere! Personally, I feel food quality has gone down while prices have increased to the point that I don't even want to go out anymore. retailwire.com/us-diners-sw... #retail #consumers #economy #dining #ecommerce

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) April 15, 2025 at 12:57 PM
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Greg Zakowicz Greg Zakowicz

The Retail (Blue)Sky is Falling — Week of April 7

Here is a collection of ecommerce and retail industry articles I found interesting and some correlating Bluesky posts from the week.

bluesky posts of the week

Nearly 1/4 will stop purchasing after just one bad experience, 70% after two! Customer service is a differentiator! Also, create value-added post-purchase email series — it works! www.retailcustomerexperience.com/news/most-co... #EmailMarketing #emailgeeks #customerservice #retail #ecommerce

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) April 11, 2025 at 11:52 AM

There won't be a trade war, the world will bow to us, it'll be fixed day 1, they say. I say, you failed to recognize our economic reliance on global partners. You could've chosen a methodical approach instead of tanking the economy. So, who blinks 1st? #tariffs #ecommerce #tradewar #retail

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) April 9, 2025 at 9:36 AM

Let the surcharges begin. I believe that calling it a surcharge gives companies an excuse to raise prices — legit or not — without having to face the same blow-back that simply raising prices would. www.financialexpress.com/trending/us-... #tariffs #retail #ecommerce #economy

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) April 8, 2025 at 12:30 PM

Yesterday was busy. Did anything happen? Unrelated, people are worried about tariffs (sarcastic) chainstoreage.com/consumers-se... #ecommerce #tariffs #retail #business #economy

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) April 8, 2025 at 12:28 PM
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The Retail (Blue)Sky is Falling — Week of March 31

Here is a collection of retail industry articles I found interesting and some correlating Bluesky posts from the week.

bluesky posts of the week

Will this give secondhand commerce an added boost? www.retaildive.com/news/trump-t... #tariffs #ecommerce #fashion #retail #deminimis

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) April 4, 2025 at 2:09 PM

More investment in private labels as shoppers make value-driven purchases retailwire.com/kroger-our-b... #Ecommerce #CPG #Grocery #retail #economy

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) April 4, 2025 at 2:06 PM

Calling all agencies, join me at Web Agency Summit 5 on April 10 as I talk about how agencies can increase their clients’ sales and retention by using the right automations. REGISTER HERE »» atarim.io/summit/?utm_... #Ecommerce #retail #emailgeeks #Agencies #EailMarketing

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) April 4, 2025 at 9:24 AM

SO MANY ❓: » Is this the end of the Temu & Shein business model in the US, or a temporary hiccup? » Will this impact TikTok Shop for US users? » Does this make TikTok a less likely acquisition target or is it a ploy to speed up a sale? www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/d... #Ecommerce #tariffs #retail

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) April 3, 2025 at 11:13 AM

Most interesting parts of this: 👉 54% of surveyed consumers say they ignore brand names 👉 57% have switched to private label alternatives due to cost 👉 55% think the quality is comparable to branded ones chainstoreage.com/news-briefs/... #Ecommerce #Retail #Marketing #Economy

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) April 2, 2025 at 3:49 PM

I am pretty sure this is frowned upon by CAN-SPAM. Also, not a good way to engage me personally. You can do better email marketers!!! #EmailMarketing #EmailGeeks #Ecommerce #Marketing

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) April 1, 2025 at 4:20 PM

A look back on COVID-19’s impact on retail. It feels like yesterday! www.retaildive.com/news/look-ba... #Ecommerce #Retail

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) March 31, 2025 at 7:54 PM
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The Retail (Blue)Sky is Falling — Week of March 24

Here is a collection of retail industry articles I found interesting and some correlating Bluesky posts from the week.

bluesky posts of the week

I recently sat down w/ Jordan Welch to discuss his ecommerce successes & failures, marketing, lessons learned from going broke, tips for success, and his chess game. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did. youtu.be/0vlA57yXcyk?... #Ecommerce #retail #Shopify #dropshipping #Omnisend

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) March 26, 2025 at 1:04 PM

Consumer confidence drops again. No surprise here! The administration seems incredibly inept thus far and has no sense or care of what the average American is dealing with. Don't expect this to change. www.conference-board.org/topics/consu... #Ecommerce #Retail #economy #ConsumerConfidence

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) March 25, 2025 at 10:53 AM

Of course they said no. The Chinese govt would rather press their domestic suppliers to accept fewer sales to make US consumers feel pain. It's a long-term strategy to destabilize the US & make the USD a less-desired global standard currency. www.cnn.com/2025/03/24/b... #Ecommerce #retail #tariffs

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) March 24, 2025 at 9:26 AM
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The Retail (Blue)Sky is Falling — Week of March 17

Here is a collection of retail industry articles I found interesting and some correlating Bluesky posts from the week.

bluesky posts of the week

Consumers are cautious, many are feeling very nervous/scared. I expect it to get worse before it gets better. www.cnbc.com/2025/03/17/r... #Ecommerce #Retail #EmailMarketing #Economy

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) March 17, 2025 at 11:13 AM

I know mine is. chainstoreage.com/consumer-sen... #Ecommerce #retail #Consumers #EmailMarketing #Marketing

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) March 17, 2025 at 11:26 AM

Brands attempting to capture every last sale possible while they can. For Amazon, can they convince value-shoppers there truly is "more to Prime?" My question: how much will they push Haul during this event? chainstoreage.com/amazon-walma... #retail #ecommerce #amazon #ecoonomy

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) March 19, 2025 at 2:28 PM

Per my previous post, I now have the answer. Most shoppers have not tried Haul (I personally think the UX is poor) but this may be a good chance to pull some of those Temu shoppers to Amazon. www.retaildive.com/news/amazon-... #Ecommerce #retail #amazon #emailgeek #marketing

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) March 20, 2025 at 9:59 AM

This makes sense. Auto parts stores have been feeling serious pressure from online stores for some time, especially Amazon. www.retailcustomerexperience.com/news/advance... #Ecommerce #retail

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— Greg Zakowicz (@gregzakowicz.com) March 21, 2025 at 1:21 PM
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